ATRI Releases 2018 Update to Studies which Predict Crash Involvement

Many of our trucking clients get upset when certain drivers are rejected by the insurance company due to MVR issues. With the chronic driver shortage, it’s understandable that fleet owners and managers need to get drivers to keep their trucks moving. However, there is a statistical basis, including analysis to predict crash involvement, for insurance companies rejecting drivers with certain major moving violations.

The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) recently released an update of their 2005 and 2011 studies, “Predicting Crash Involvement”. The study examines driver age and behaviors to determine which factors best predict crash involvement in the future. For example, a driver with the reckless driving violation is 114% more likely to be involved in a future crash. Many insurance companies cite that a newly hired driver—even an experienced one—is 70% or more likely to be involved in a crash within their first year of driving for a new employer. If you combine the crash predictors below and the factor for new drivers, it becomes more understandable why insurance companies can be so strict. Please see the table below for the Top 10 predictors or download the report by clicking here.

We often work with our clients to advocate for drivers who are “on the fence”, but often upon reviewing an MVR, it’s clear that there is no hope of even a probationary approval. Statistics like those found in the ATRI report make it difficult to justify hiring certain drivers since they are claims waiting to happen. After all, hiring a bad driver will be much more costly to your company than waiting for a better one to come along.

As always, the trucking insurance professionals at The Daniel & Henry Company are here to help you understand what measures you can take to reduce risk and insurance costs. Please call us today at 1-877-406-5915 or email us at RuebsamJ@danielandhenry.com

ATRI: Comparison of Top 10 Predictors of Future Crash Involvement

Rank Driver Behavior and Associated Increase in Future Crash Probability
2005 2011 2018
1 A Reckless Driving Violation (325%) A Failure to Use / Improper Signal Conviction (96%) A Reckless Driving Violation (114%)
2 An Improper Turn Violation (105%) A Past Crash (88%) A Failure to Yield Right of Way Violation (101%)
3 An Improper or Erratic Lane Change Conviction (100%) An Improper Passing Violation (88%) A Failure to Keep in Proper Lane Conviction (83%)
4 A Failure to Yield Right of Way Conviction (97%) An Improper Turn Conviction (84%) A Failure to Use / Improper Signal Conviction (82%)
5 An Improper Turn Conviction (94%) An Improper or Erratic Lane Change Conviction (80%) A Past Crash (74%)
6 A Failure to Maintain Proper Lane Conviction (91%) An Improper Lane / Location Conviction (68%) An Improper Lane / Location Conviction (72%)
7 A Past Crash (87%) A Failure to Obey Traffic Sign Conviction (68%) An Improper Pass Conviction (70%)
8 An Improper Lane Change Violation (78%) A Speeding More Than 15 Miles Over Speed Limit Conviction (67%) A Reckless/ Careless/ Inattentive/Negligent Driving Conviction (69%)
9 A Failure to Yield Right of Way Violation (70%) Any Conviction (65%) An Improper or Erratic Lane Changes Conviction (66%)
10 A Driving Too fast for Conditions Conviction (62%) A Reckless/ Careless/ Inattentive/Negligent Driving Conviction (64%) An Improper Lane Change Violation (63%)